News

Clean Power 2030 report ‘betrays limited understanding’ of solar and battery, says Solar Energy UK

Clean power by 2030 is a ‘huge challenge’ but is achievable for Great Britain, according to a new independent report commissioned by the government.

A picture of solar panels and wind turbines in a field.

Labour has committed to making Britain a clean energy superpower by 2030, prompting lots of questions about how that can be achieved in the face of challenges including the cost of electricity, grid capacity and a slow planning system.

Some of these challenges have been addressed in a report by the newly-formed, state-owned National Energy System Operator (NESO), which was tasked with exploring the potential pathways to a carbon-free power system.

Titled ‘Clean Power 2030’, the report concludes that not only is the ambition achievable, but it would also see Britain become a net exporter of power.

However, trade association, Solar Energy UK, says the NESO report ‘betrays a limited understanding of solar generation and battery energy storage, leading to a concerning lack of ambition for the technologies’.

The two pathways to clean power

In a detailed 84-page document, two primary pathways for clean power are identified. One relies heavily on renewable energy projects, building 50GW of onshore wind by 2030 with no new dispatchable power from hydrogen or gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS). The second focuses more on nuclear, delivering new dispatchable plants (totalling 2.7GW) and 43GW of offshore wind.

Either way, offshore wind must be the ‘bedrock’ of a clean power system, providing over half of our generation, with onshore wind and solar providing another 29%. New dispatchable low carbon technologies, such as CCS or hydrogen, also ‘add significant value to the system’.

There also needs to be a four to five-fold increase in demand flexibility (excluding storage heaters), with an increase in grid connected battery storage from 5GW to over 22GW, more pumped storage and major expansions in onshore wind (from 14GW to 27GW) and solar from 15GW to 47GW, along with nuclear plant life extensions.

Either pathway will also require a ‘dramatic acceleration’ in progress compared to anything achieved before, and will only be possible with a huge collective effort across the industry.

Other key factors highlighted in the report include:

  • We need to contract as much offshore wind capacity in the next two years as in the last six combined
  • All planned transmission networks need to be built on time, which involves twice as much in the next five years as was built in total over the last 10
  • Connection processes need to be reformed in 2025 to align with the clean power goal
  • Planning and consenting processes need to be reformed, alongside key decisions being taken on funding, contracts and policy, to ensure construction on key projects can begin as soon as possible
  • Electricity markets need to be reformed, while ensuring a stable investment environment to attract over £40bn of investment annually until 2030
  • The link between electricity bills and volatile international gas process must be cut, without increasing costs to consumers

NESO CEO, Fintan Slye, said: “Our advice to the government indicates that to achieve clean power by 2030, a once in a generation shift in approach and in the pace of delivery is required. Without that, we risk failing to help consumers, society and the economy to navigate a transition to clean energy that is secure, reliable, affordable and fair for all.

“There’s no doubt that the challenges ahead on the journey are great. But if the scale of these challenges is matched with the bold, sustained actions that are outlined in this report, the benefits delivered could be even greater.”

 The report goes into much more detail about how clean power can be achieved, and can be read on the NESO website.

The reaction from Solar Energy UK

While agreeing with the report’s conclusions that clean power is achievable by 2030, Solar Energy UK (SEUK) says it is disappointed with its lack of depth.

Solar Energy UK Chief Executive, Chris Hewett, said: “The state-owned company’s analysis of how the country can slash gas-powered generation is not of the depth that we expected. We had little opportunity to contribute to it – unlike the thermal power sector. 

“Solar Energy UK is very concerned that the potential for solar and energy storage has been underplayed in NESO’s Clean Power 30 scenarios and urge the government to ask some searching questions about the assumptions used. It is impossible to see how the growth of rooftop solar and batteries, on homes, factories and warehouses has been taken into account. 

“Solar farms are the lowest cost and fastest to deploy power generation in the country, many with co-located batteries. Yet the NESO scenarios have no deployment range for solar at all and a conservative range for batteries. This betrays, at best, an oversight, at worst, a fundamental misunderstanding of their potential.

“The use of an old and inaccurate figure (15GW) for the UK’s solar generation capacity is also of concern. This is currently 17.1GW according to official figures, though the industry believes that the true figure is now approaching 20GW, up from 17.8GW at the end of 2023. The discrepancy, acknowledged by the Climate Change Committee earlier this year, is due largely to major rooftop installations (such as on warehouses and supermarkets) not being tracked well by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero.

“Accordingly, SEUK anticipates that the deployment of solar and battery energy storage technologies will be even faster than outlined by NESO. 

“Defining Labour’s clean power goal as unabated gas supplying only 5% of Great Britain’s power over a typical year, the report states that there is “no path” towards the goal without the mass deployment of solar energy and other renewables. Both scenarios set out in the report assume that the country will reach 47.4 gigawatts of solar generation capacity, less than the 50GW outlined by Labour prior to the general election and less than there is in the queue for grid connections. 

“NESO also sees at least 22.6GW of battery energy storage in 2030, rising to 27.4GW in its ‘Further Flex and Renewables’ pathway, up from 4.7GW in 2023. 

“We have every confidence that the solar and battery energy storage industries will exceed the figures outlined by NESO report today, delivering cheaper, greener and more secure energy for the nation.”

SEUK nevertheless agrees with NESO’s conclusions that clean power by 2030 is both achievable and beneficial, lessening the chance of price spikes, cutting air pollution and carbon emissions, lowering cooling water consumption, delivering economic growth – and all without an increase to consumer bills. 

As confirmed in the Autumn Budget, the government will now consider the report and draw up its own definition of clean power and plan to deliver it, which in turn will feed into NESO’s Strategic Spatial Energy Plan and reforms to managing the grid queue.  

The practical measures needed to further accelerate the growth of the solar industry will be outlined early next year, in the Solar Taskforce’s Solar Roadmap. This is expected to cover how the UK should cut waiting times to connect to the grid, deliver skills and training for the future solar workforce, tackle myths and misinformation and cut regulatory and other barriers for rooftop installations – such as reforming planning rules in conservation areas and enabling access to finance.

An energy provider view

Energy provider SSE, which has a £20bn clean power investment programme, has also responded to the report.

Its Chief Executive, Alistair Phillip-Davies, said: “Clean power is a big challenge, but if we act with enough urgency, decisiveness and the right partnership between industry, government and regulators then it is achievable.

“Industry will invest the money needed if regulators deliver investible frameworks and government provides supportive policies that get projects built.

“The faster we get there the quicker we can deliver the good jobs and energy security we all want to see; building a strong home-grown system that is affordable and protects families and businesses from future energy price shocks.

“SSE is ready to play our part delivering the renewables, electricity networks and flexible technologies needed to deliver clean power at pace.”

Greg Jackson, founder of Octopus Energy, added: “We agree with NESO that there is real need for changing market arrangements in order to send the right signals for consumption and investment. For example, introducing locational pricing is a mechanism we agree could make a big difference in the runup to 2030.”

What is meant by ‘clean power’?

A clean power system is where demand is met by clean sources, mainly renewables, with gas-fired generation used only rarely to ensure security of supply. This would mainly be during times of low wind. For the benefit of the NESO report, clean power is classified as clean sources producing at least as much power as Great Britain consumes in total, while unabated gas should provide less than 5%.

The report states that our electricity system was run at 95% zero carbon earlier this year for a short period of time and is therefore achievable.

What do you think about the clean power 2030 ambition? Is it achievable? What needs to happen first? Write to linda@renewableenergyinstaller.co.uk.

Image credit: iStock.